NOAA: 50% Chance Tropical Cyclone Forms Off Florida

MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center has issued a Special Tropical Weather Outlook at 7:15 p.m. EDT on Tuesday, May 22, 2018 which predicts a medium (50%) chance of an area of disturbed weather becoming a tropical cyclone off the coast of Florida during the next five days.

The system, dubbed Invest 90L, is a broad surface low pressure area that has formed over the northwestern Caribbean Sea a couple of hundred miles east of the coast of Belize.

This low and an upper-level trough are producing widespread cloudiness and showers extending from the northwestern Caribbean Sea across Cuba and the Florida peninsula.

Invest 90L 2018 GOES Satellite Image

NHC forecasters say that, while environmental conditions are expected to be unfavorable for development of Invest 90L during the next couple of days, some gradual subtropical or tropical development is possible later this week while the system moves slowly northward into the central or eastern Gulf of Mexico.

Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible across western Cuba and Florida over the next several days and into Memorial Day weekend.

Invest 90L has a 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours and a 40% chance within the next 5 days.

If a tropical storm does form, the first name on the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Names list is Tropical Storm Alberto.

Invest 90L 2018 Spaghetti Models

Invest 90L 2018 Spaghetti Models

Computer models are in general agreement that Invest 90L’s projected path will move in a generally northern direction. However, there is little agreement among the computer models as to where along the U.S. Gulf Coast the system will eventually make landfall.  The variations among the models stretch from Texas to Louisiana to Florida.