NOAA NHC: 90% Chance Tropical Cyclone Forms In 48 Hours

MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center has issued a Special Tropical Weather Outlook at 7:30 a.m. EDT on Friday, May 25, 2018 which predicts a high (90%) chance of an area of disturbed weather becoming a tropical cyclone off the coast of Florida during the next 48 hours.

The system, dubbed Invest 90L, is a broad surface low pressure area drifting slowly northward just east of the Yucatan Peninsula

Invest 90L has become better defined overnight, and thunderstorm activity has also increased and become better organized over the northwestern Caribbean Sea .

Invest 90L 2018 GOES Satellite Image

NHC forecasters say that environmental conditions are forecast to steadily become more conducive for development, and a subtropical or tropical depression or storm is likely to form by Saturday over the northwestern Caribbean Sea or the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

A U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system this afternoon, if necessary.

Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is forecast across western Cuba and over much of Florida and the northern Gulf Coast into early next week.

Invest 90L could also bring tropical-storm-force winds and storm surge to portions of the northern Gulf Coast by late this weekend or early next week.

Additionally, the threat of rip currents will steadily increase along the Gulf Coast from Florida westward to Louisiana over the Memorial Day weekend.

Invest 90L has a 90% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours and a 90% chance within the next 5 days.

If a tropical storm does form, the first name on the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Names list is Tropical Storm Alberto.

Invest 90L 2018 Spaghetti Models

Invest 90L 2018 Spaghetti Models

Computer models are in general agreement that Invest 90L’s projected path will move in a generally northern direction. The most reliable Atlantic hurricane spaghetti models are beginning to tighten in their consensus this morning.

The landfall forecast ranges have narrowed to include New Orleans, Louisiana; Biloxi, Mississippi; Moile, Alabama; Pensacola, Florida; Panama City, Florida; and Florida’s Big Bend region.