NOAA: Tropical Storm Dorian Projected Path, Spaghetti Models

MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued a Public Advisory at 8 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Tuesday, August 27, 2019, due to Tropical Storm Dorian that is forecast to hit Florida.

Tropical Storm Dorian (formerly Tropical Depression 5 and Invest 99L) is located 15 miles southeast of St. Lucia and is moving to the west-northwest at 13 mph (20km/h).

Tropical Storm Dorian 2019 Projected Path

NHC forecasters say that Dorian will continue on a west-northwest track through tonight followed by a turn toward the northwest on Wednesday.

On the National Hurricane Center forecast track, the center of the tropical cyclone is expected to pass near or south of Puerto Rico on Wednesday, near or over the Dominican Republic Wednesday night, The Bahamas on Friday and Saturday, and then hit Florida by Sunday.

Tropical Storm Dorian Computer Models

NOAA National Hurricane Center Tropical Storm Dorian Computer Models, Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models are in good agreement that Tropical Storm Dorian will continue on a northwesterly track towards the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, The Bahamas, and then hit Florida.

Often the most accurate spaghetti model, the European hurricane model for Dorian (ECMWF) is near the northern side of the NHC “cone of uncertainty” while the UKMET is near the southern side.

The official NHC track forecast was shifted to the north but lies south of the latest dynamical model consensus.

Tropical Storm Dorian is a tropical storm on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph (85 km/h), with higher gusts.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center of the tropical cyclone.

Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Dorian is expected to become near Category 1 Hurricane strength before it reaches the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico.

NOAA forecasts an ‘above-normal’ 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season which runs from June 1 through November 30.