NOAA: Tropical Storm Dorian Projected Path Update, Spaghetti Models

NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued a Public Advisory at 8 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Wednesday, August 28, 2019, due to the presence of Tropical Storm Dorian near Puerto Rico.

Tropical Storm Dorian is located 60 miles southeast of St. Croix and is moving to the northwest at 13 mph (20 km/h).

NHC forecasters say that Dorian will continue on a northwest track for the next few days.

Tropical Storm Dorian Projected Path Update

On the National Hurricane Center forecast track, the center of the tropical storm will pass over or near Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands later today.

Hurricane Dorian will track to the east of the Turks and Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas on Thursday, central and northwestern Bahamas on Friday and Saturday, and then make landfall on Florida on Monday.

Tropical Storm Dorian Computer Models

Spaghetti models are in tight agreement that Tropical Storm Dorian will continue on a northwesterly track towards Puerto Rico and the Bahamas, then  west-northwesterly towards Florida.

Often the most accurate spaghetti model, the European hurricane model for Dorian (ECMWF orange triangle on the spaghetti model plot) is in close agreement with the NHC “cone of uncertainty.”

The official NHC track forecast shifted to the north in agreement with the European hurricane model but is south and southwest of the latest simple and corrected consensus predictions.

Tropical Storm Dorian Category Strength

Tropical Storm Dorian is currently a tropical storm on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph (95 km/h), with higher gusts.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center of the tropical cyclone.

Dorian is forecast to be near Category 1 Hurricane strength when the tropical cyclone approaches the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

Although weakening is possible after Dorian moves across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, the storm is forecast to restrengthen into a Category 1 Hurricane before Dorian hits Florida on Sunday.