MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued a Tropical Weather Outlook at 2 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Thursday, September 12, 2019, due to the presence of Invest 95L that may become a tropical storm near Florida as early as Friday.
Invest 95L 2019 Projected Path
Invest 95L is a large area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure located over the central and southeastern Bahamas (marked with a red “X”).
The system is moving toward the northwest at 5 to 10 mph across the northwestern Bahamas and toward the Florida Peninsula.
Satellite-derived winds and surface observations indicate that Invest 95L has not yet developed a closed circulation and that the winds are not strong at this time.
NHC forecasters say that surface pressures remain low and environmental conditions are favorable for a tropical depression or tropical storm to form within the next day or two.
Potential Tropical Cyclone advisories could be issued later today or Friday by the National Hurricane Center.
Interests in Florida and the central and northwestern Bahamas should monitor the progress of Invest 95L.
Regardless of development, this system will bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds to portions of the Bahamas through Friday, including areas of the northwestern Bahamas affected by Hurricane Dorian.
A U.S. Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate this disturbance this afternoon.
This system has an 80% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next five days and a 70% chance within the next 48 hours.
Invest 95L 2019 Spaghetti Models
Spaghetti models shifted east overnight away from the Gulf of Mexico and towards the east coast of Florida.
The often accurate European hurricane model forecasts that Invest 95L will track to the north-northwest parallel to the east coast of Florida.
If Invest 95L becomes a tropical storm, the next name on the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane names list is Tropical Storm Humberto.
NOAA forecasts an ‘above-normal’ 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season which runs from June 1 through November 30.