MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued a Tropical Weather Outlook at 2 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Wednesday, September 11, 2019, due to the presence of three systems that may become tropical cyclones within the next 5 days.
Invest 95L 2019
The first system dubbed Invest 95L is a surface trough interacting with an upper-level low near the southeastern Bahamas (marked with an orange “X”).
NHC forecasters say that little development of this system is expected during the next few days while it moves west-northwestward across the Bahamas.
However, environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for development when Invest 95L moves over the Florida Straits and into the Gulf of Mexico late this week and over the weekend.
Regardless of development, this disturbance will produce periods of locally heavy rainfall across the Bahamas through Thursday and across Florida from Friday through the weekend.
Invest 95L has a 60% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next five days and a 20% chance within the next 48 hours.
Invest 94L 2019
The second system named Invest 94L is an area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave that is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms 800 miles east of the Lesser Antilles (marked with the left yellow “X”).
Some slight development of this system is possible today.
By Thursday, upper-level winds are forecast to become unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation.
Invest 94L has a 20% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next five days and a 20% chance within the next 48 hours.
Invest 94L 2019 Spaghetti Models
Spaghetti models are in agreement that Invest 94L will track west-northwest across the tropical Atlantic towards the Lesser Antilles.
However, the computer models begin to diverge in both projected track and intensity after 24 hours before Invest 94L nears the Carribean.
The often reliable European hurricane model forecasts that Invest 94L will track to the northwest after 48 hours towards the Dominican Republic.
Tropical Wave Off Africa
The third system is a tropical wave located just off the west coast of Africa that is expected to move quickly westward during the next several days (marked with the right yellow “X”).
NHC forecasters say that some slow development is possible late this week and over the weekend when the system is several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands.
This system has a 20% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next five days and a 0% chance within the next 48 hours.
If any of these systems become a tropical storm, the next name on the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane names list is Tropical Storm Humberto.
NOAA forecasts an ‘above-normal’ 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season which runs from June 1 through November 30.