NOAA: Hurricane Dorian Projected Path Update, Spaghetti Models

NOAA National Hurricane Center Hurricane Dorian Projected Path Florida

NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued a Public Advisory at 4 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Wednesday, September 4, 2019, due to the presence of Hurricane Dorian off the east coast of Florida.

Hurricane Dorian Projected Path Update

Hurricane Dorian is located 100 miles east Daytona Beach, Florida and is moving north-northwest at 8 mph (13 km/h).

A slightly faster motion toward the northwest or north-northwest is expected through this morning.

On the National Hurricane Center forecast track, Hurricane Dorian will turn toward the north by this evening, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast on Thursday morning.

On this track, the core of Hurricane Dorian will move dangerously close to the Florida east coast and the Georgia coast through tonight.

The center of Dorian is forecast to move near or over the coast of South Carolina and North Carolina Thursday through Friday morning.

Hurricane Dorian Computer Models

NOAA National Hurricane Center Hurricane Dorian Computer Models, Spaghetti Models

The official NHC track is along the western edge of the interpolated computer models through 36 hours, closer to what is depicted in the various global fields.

After that time, the official forecast is near a blend of the faster GFS and slower European hurricane model (ECMWF) models.

Hurricane Dorian Category Strength

NOAA National Hurricane Center Hurricane Dorian Computer Models, Spaghetti Models

Dorian is currently a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph (165 km/h), with higher gusts.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center of the tropical cyclone.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center.


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