NOAA: Tropical Storm Jerry Path Update, Spaghetti Models

NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued a Public Advisory at 8 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Tuesday, September 24, 2019, due to the presence of Tropical Storm Jerry over the Atlantic.

Tropical Storm Jerry Projected Path

Tropical Storm Jerry is located 275 miles southwest of Bermuda and is moving to the north-northwest at 8 mph (13 km/h).

The tropical cyclone is forecast to the northeast by tonight followed by a turn to the east-northeast on Wednesday.

On the National Hurricane Center forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near Bermuda on Wednesday.

Tropical Storm Jerry Computer Models

Tropical Storm Jerry Computer Models, Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models, including the European model (orange triangle), are in general agreement that Jerry will curve to the northeast out into the open Atlantic.

The UK model (blue square) and GFS model (purple square) are the outliers which forecast that Jerry will make a u-turn towards the southeast.

The official NHC forecast track (red circle) is somewhat slower beyond the 24 hour period than the previous advisory to align more with the reliable TVCA multi-model consensus.

Tropical Storm Jerry Category Strength

Tropical Storm Jerry Winds

Tropical Storm Jerry has maximum sustained winds of 60 mph (95 km/h), with higher gusts.

Tropical Storm Jerry is a tropical storm on the Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km) from the center of the tropical cyclone.

Jerry is forecast to degenerate into a remnant over the weekend.

Tropical Storm Jerry Watches And Warnings

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Bermuda.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

NOAA forecasts an ‘above-normal’ 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season which runs from June 1 through November 30.