NOAA: Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 Projected Path, Spaghetti Models

NOAA National Hurricane Center Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 Projected Path Florida

NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued a Public Advisory at 2 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Friday, September 13, 2019, due to the presence of Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 (formerly Invest 95L) that is tracking towards east Central Florida.

Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 Projected Path

Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 is located 190 miles east-southeast of Great Abaco Island and is stationary.

This system is expected to resume a slow motion toward the northwest and north-northwest later today.

On the National Hurricane Center forecast track, Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 is anticipated to move across the central and northwestern Bahamas today, and along or over the east coast of Central Florida on Saturday and Saturday night.

Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 Computer Models

Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 Computer Models, Spaghetti Models

There is still some spread among the computer models, with the GFS model taking a weaker system into the Florida peninsula while the UKMET and European (ECMWF) models show a stronger cyclone farther offshore.

Spaghetti models continue to shift eastward, especially after 72 hours.

The new official NHC forecast track also nudged a little to the east and now calls for the system to spend less time over the Florida peninsula than previously forecast.

The new NHC forecast track is to the left of the center of the guidance envelope and the consensus models.

Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 Category Strength

Tropical Storm Humberto wind arrival time Florida

Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 has maximum sustained winds of 30 mph (45 km/h), with higher gusts.

P.T.C. 9 is expected to become a tropical depression or Tropical Storm Humberto later today.

Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 Watches and Warning

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Jupiter Inlet to Volusia-Flagler County line.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests along the east coast of Florida should monitor the progress of this system.