SAN FRANCISCO, Florida – A 4.5 magnitude earthquake rocked the San Francisco Bay Area at 10:33 p.m. Pacific Daylight Time on Monday, October 14, 2019.
The earthquake’s epicenter is located at 1.2 km (0.7 mi) north-northwest of Pleasant Hill, 3.5 km (2.2 mi) south of Walnut Creek, and 21.8 km (13.5 mi) southwest of Oakland, California.
The San Francisco earthquake occurred at a depth of 14.6 km, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.
Bay Area Earthquake Aftershock Forecast
The USGS forecasts that over the next week there is a 2 % chance of one or more aftershocks that are larger than magnitude 4.5.
It is likely that there will be smaller earthquakes over the next week, with 0 to 4 magnitude 3 or higher aftershocks.
Magnitude 3 and above are large enough to be felt near the epicenter.
The number of aftershocks will drop off over time, but a large aftershock can increase the numbers again, temporarily.
The USGS caveats that no one can predict the exact time or place of an earthquake, including aftershocks.
The USGS earthquake forecasts only give an understanding of the chances of having more earthquakes within a given time period.
The USGS calculates this earthquake forecast using a statistical analysis based on past earthquakes and the aftershocks recorded for this sequence.
Bay Area Earthquake Tsunami Threat
The Bay Area National Weather Service declared that there is no tsunami threat from the Walnut Creek earthquake.
No tsunami threat is expected with this #earthquake.
— NWS Bay Area (@NWSBayArea) October 15, 2019