MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued a Special Tropical Weather Outlook at 8:10 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Saturday, May 16, 2020, due to the presence of Invest 90L that will likely become a subtropical or tropical cyclone off the east coast of Florida within the next 24 hours.
An area of low pressure located just offshore of the southeast coast of Florida continues to produce shower activity and gusty winds from portions of southeast and east-central Florida eastward across the northwestern Bahamas and the adjacent Atlantic waters (marked with a red “X”).
Satellite images and surface observations indicate that Invest 90L is gradually becoming better defined, but the associated showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized.
NHC forecasters say that gradual development of Invest 90L is expected, and this system is likely to become a tropical or subtropical depression or storm later or tonight while it moves north-northeastward over the Atlantic waters east of Florida.
Later in the weekend and early next week, the low is expected to move generally northeastward over the western Atlantic near or east of the Carolinas.
Computer models are in general agreement that Invest 90L will track in a northwesterly direction somewhere between southeast Florida and the northwestern Bahamas on Saturday.
Invest 90L has an 80% chance of tropical or subtropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours and 5 days.
If Invest 90L forms into a tropical storm or hurricane, the first name on the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Names list is Arthur.
Regardless of development, the disturbance will continue to bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds across portions of east-central Florida and the northwestern Bahamas through today.
Hazardous marine conditions will spread northward during the next few days, likely causing dangerous surf and rip currents along much of the southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts of the U.S.
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently en route to investigate the disturbance.
Although hurricane season does not start until June 1st, a small peak of activity often occurs during the second week of May, according to NOAA and the National Weather Service’s historical hurricane activity data.