NOAA: Tropical Depression 1 Projected Path, Spaghetti Models

MELBOURNE, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued a Public Advisory at  8 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Saturday, May 16, 2020, due to the presence of Tropical Depression One (formerly Invest 90L) that is tracking towards the Outerbanks of North Carolina.

Tropical Depression 1 Projected Path

NOAA National Hurricane Center Tropical Depression 1 Projected PathTropical Depression 1 is located 175 miles east-northeast of Melbourne, Florida, and is moving to the northeast at 14 mph (22 km/h).

NHC forecasters say that this motion toward the northeast or north-northeast is expected tonight into Sunday morning. After that time, a faster northeastward motion is expected.

On the National Hurricane Center forecast track, the depression is expected to remain well offshore the east coast of Florida and Georgia tonight and Sunday, and then move near or east of the coast of North Carolina on Monday.

Tropical Depression 1 Computer Models

Tropical Depression 1, Tropical Storm Arthur Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models are in general agreement that the tropical cyclone will make landfall on, or pass just east of, the Outerbanks of North Carolina.

The GFS and HWRF models are on the left side of the guidance and bring the system inland or along the coast, while the ECMWF and UKMET models show an offshore track.

The NHC track forecast splits the difference of between these computer models and lies close to the various consensus models, which usually perform best.

It should be noted that forecast uncertainty is typically larger for weak systems like this one.

Tropical Depression 1 Category Strength

Tropical Depression 1 has maximum sustained winds of 35 mph (55 km/h), with higher gusts.

T.D. 1 is forecast to gradually strengthen into Tropical Storm Arthur on Sunday.

Tropical Storm Arthur Watches and Warnings

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for New River Inlet to Duck, North Carolina, and Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.


WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area on Monday.

RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce additional rain accumulations of 1 to 2 inches over the central and northwest Bahamas, and generally less than 1 inch over south Florida through tonight. The depression is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 2 inches over coastal North Carolina Sunday night and Monday.

SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of the east coast of central and northern Florida. These swells are expected to spread northward during the next few days and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions across much of the U.S. southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts.