NHC: Tropical Storm Arthur Projected Path, Spaghetti Models

CAPE HATTERAS, North Carolina – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued a Public Advisory at 11 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Sunday, May 17, 2020, due to the presence of Tropical Storm Arthur (formerly Invest 90L and Tropical Depression One) that is tracking towards the Outerbanks of North Carolina.

Tropical Storm Arthur Projected Path

NOAA National Hurricane Center Tropical Storm Arthur 2020 Projected Path

Tropical Storm Arthur is located 345 miles south-southwest of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, and is moving to the north-northeast at 9 mph (15 km/h).

NHC forecasters say that a turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next 24 to 48 hours.

On the National Hurricane Center forecast track, Arthur will remain well offshore the east coast of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina today, and then move near or just east of the coast of North Carolina on Monday.

Arthur is forecast to turn away from the U.S. East Coast on Tuesday.

Tropical Storm Arthur Computer Models

Tropical Storm Arthur Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models are in general agreement that the tropical cyclone will make landfall on, or pass just east of, the Outerbanks of North Carolina.

The GFS and HWRF computer models remain along the western side of the guidance while the ECMWF and UKMET computer models bracket the eastern side.

The official NHC track lies near the model consensus and little change was required to the previous track through 36-48 hours. After that
time, the track guidance spread increases with the ECMWF showing a much faster east-southeastward motion than the GFS.

The NHC forecast remains near the consensus after 48 hours, but there is less confidence in that portion of the track prediction.

Tropical Storm Arthur Strength

Data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h), with higher gusts. Arthur is likely to lose its tropical characteristics on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center of the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Storm Arthur Watches and Warnings

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Surf City to Duck, North Carolina, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.


WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area on Monday.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Arthur is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over coastal North Carolina tonight and Monday, with locally higher amounts.

SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Arthur are affecting portions of the east coast of central and northern Florida. These swells are expected to spread northward during the next few days and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions across much of the U.S. southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts.