MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued a Tropical Weather Outlook at 2:00 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Wednesday, July 22, 2020, due to the presence of Invest 91L that may form into a tropical cyclone over the Gulf of Mexico before reaching Texas or Louisiana.
Invest 91L is a broad area of low pressure in association with a tropical wave that is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central Gulf of Mexico (marked with a red “X”).
NHC forecasters say that conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or two as the system moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
Interests in the western Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system, as watches or warnings could be required for portions of the coasts of Texas and Louisiana later today or tonight.
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon.
Invest 91L has an 80% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 5 days and a 70% chance within the next 48 hours.
Invest 91L 2020 Computer Models
Spaghetti models are in general agreement that Invest 91L will move in a northwesterly direction across the Gulf of Mexico towards Texas.
However, the spread between computer models stretches along the entire Texas coast and western Louisiana.
NOAA forecasts an ‘above-normal’ 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season which runs from June 1 through November 30.