NOAA: Invest 92L Track, Spaghetti Models

MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida issued a Tropical Weather Outlook at 2 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Tuesday, July 28, 2020, due to the presence of Invest 92L 2020 that will likely form into a tropical cyclone over the Atlantic Ocean.

Invest 92L is a broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave over the central tropical Atlantic located about 750 miles east of the Windward Islands (marked with a red “X”).

The system is gradually increasing in organization. However, recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that the circulation remains broad and elongated, and the low does not yet have a well-defined center of circulation.

Invest 92L 2020 Projected Path

NHC forecasters say that environmental conditions are expected to become somewhat more favorable for development during the next few days and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form during that time frame.

Invest 92L is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.

If Invest 92L becomes a tropical storm or hurricane, the next name on the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Names List is Isaias.

Invest 92L has a 90% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 5 days and an 80% chance within the next 48 hours.

Regardless of development, locally heavy rains and gusty winds are likely across portions of the Leeward Islands on Wednesday and will spread westward to the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Wednesday night and Thursday.

Invest 92L 2020 Computer Models

Invest 92L 2020 Computer Models, Spaghetti Models
Invest 92L 2020 Computer Models, Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models are in general agreement that Invest 92L will move in a west-northwesterly direction across the tropical Atlantic Ocean followed by a curve to the northwest when it nears The Bahamas.

The European model (orange triangle) is the outlier computer model that brings Invest 92L just south of the Dominican Republic, across Haiti, and then south of western Cuba.

The UK model (blue square)  forecasts that Invest 92L will pass just north of the Dominican Republic and over the southeastern Bahamas.

NOAA forecasts an ‘above-normal’ 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season which runs from June 1 through November 30.