NOAA: Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 Track, Spaghetti Models

MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued a Public Advisory at 8 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Wednesday, July 29, 2020, due to the presence of Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine (formerly Invest 92L) that will likely form into Tropical Storm Isaias before nearing Florida.

Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 Projected Path

P.T.C. 9 is located about 280 miles east-southeast of Santo Domingo, Domincan Republic, and is moving to the west-northwest at 23 mph (37 km/h).

NHC forecasters say this general motion with a reduction in forward speed should continue during the next few days.

On the NHC forecast track, the system will pass south of Puerto Rico later tonight, near or over Hispaniola on Thursday, near eastern Cuba
and the southeastern Bahamas on Friday, and approach the northwestern Bahamas and southern Florida Friday night.

Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 Computer Models

Tropical Storm Isaias 2020 Computer Models, Spaghetti Models
Tropical Storm Isaias 2020 Computer Models, Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models are in general agreement that P.T.C. 9 will track in a west-northwesterly direction over Hispaniola and then curve to the northwest over The Bahamas and east coast of Florida.

The Europen model (orange triangle) has shifted to the east in better agreement with the GFS and HRWF model forecast of a more easterly track over The Bahamas and the east coast of Florida.

The UK model (blue square) is the outlier with a more westerly track into the Gulf of Mexico.

The latest NHC track forecast has been shifted eastward, but it remains to the west of the latest multi-model consensus aids out of respect for continuity and the continued possibility of further model shifts.

Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 Strength

Tropical Storm Isaias 2020 NOAA NHC Wind Arrival Time
Tropical Storm Isaias 2020 NOAA NHC Wind Arrival Time

Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 has maximum sustained winds of 45 mph (75 km/h), with higher gusts.

Some increase in strength is forecast through tonight, with weakening likely on Thursday due to land interaction. Some restrengthening is possible by this weekend.

Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 Watches and Warnings

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for:

Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra
U.S. Virgin Islands
The British Virgin Islands
Anguilla
St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy
Saba and St. Eustatius
St. Maarten
Dominican Republic entire southern and northern coastlines
North coast of Haiti from Le Mole St Nicholas eastward to the northern border with the Dominican Republic
The Turks and Caicos Islands
Southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for:

The Dominican Republic from the southern Haiti border eastward to Cabo Caucedo and the Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay, and San Salvador.

NOAA forecasts an ‘above-normal’ 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season which runs from June 1 through November 30.