NOAA: Tropical Storm Isaias Track To Florida, Spaghetti Models

MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued a Public Advisory at 8 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Thursday, July 30, 2020, due to the presence of Tropical Storm Isaias (formerly Invest 92L and Potential Tropical Cyclone 9) that forecast to track near or over Florida as Hurricane Isaias.

Tropical Storm Isaias Projected Path

Isaias is located about 45 miles west-northwest of Puerta Plata, Dominican Republic, and is moving to the northwest at 20 mph (31 km/h).

NHC forecasters say that a west-northwestward to northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days.

On the NHC forecast track, the center of Isaias will move near the Southeastern Bahamas by late tonight.

Isaias is forecast to be near the Central Bahamas Friday night and move near or over the Northwest Bahamas and near South Florida on Saturday.

Tropical Storm Isaias Computer Models

Tropical Storm Isaias 2020 Computer Models, Spaghetti Models
Tropical Storm Isaias 2020 Computer Models, Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models continue to shift eastward and are in general agreement that Isaias will track in a northwesterly direction over Hispaniola and then curve to the north-northwest over The Bahamas and near the east coast of Florida.

The UK model (blue square) has shifted to the east in better agreement with the GFS and HRWF model forecast of a more easterly track over The Bahamas and the east coast of Florida.

The European model (orange triangle) is the outlier with a more westerly track making landfall near Palm Beach, Florida, and moving northward along Central Florida’s east coast.

The new NHC track forecast is a blend of the various consensus aids. Since the new center is still in its formative stage some additional shifts in the track may occur. In addition, strong winds and heavy rainfall will extend far from the center.

Tropical Storm Isaias Strength

Tropical Storm Isaias 2020 NOAA NHC Wind Arrival Time
Tropical Storm Isaias 2020 NOAA NHC Wind Arrival Time

Tropical Storm Isaias has maximum sustained winds of  60 mph (95 km/h), with higher gusts.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km) from the tropical cyclone’s center.

Strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Isaias is forecast to become a hurricane on Friday or Friday night.

Tropical Storm Isaias Watches and Warnings

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the northwestern Bahamas including Andros Island, New Providence, Eleuthera, Abacos Islands, Berry Islands, Grand Bahamas Island, and Bimini.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for:

Dominican Republic entire southern and northern coastlines
North coast of Haiti from Le Mole St Nicholas eastward to the northern border with the Dominican Republic
The Turks and Caicos Islands
Southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands
Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay, and San Salvador

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the east coast of Florida from Ocean Reef to Sebastian Inlet.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

NOAA forecasts an ‘above-normal’ 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season which runs from June 1 through November 30.