NOAA: Tropical Depression 11 Track, Spaghetti Models

MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued a Public Advisory at 5 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Thursday, August 13, 2020, due to the presence of Tropical Depression Eleven (formerly Invest 95L) that is tracking near the Caribbean.

If T.D. 11 strengthens into a tropical storm, the next name on the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Names list is Josephine.

Tropical Depression 11 Projected Path

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NOAA National Hurricane Center Tropical Depression 11 2020 Projected Path

Tropical Depression 11 is located about 1075 miles east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles and is moving to the west-northwest at 15 mph (24 km/h).

NHC forecasters say that this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days followed by a turn toward the northwest late this weekend or early next week.

Tropical Depression 11 Computer Models

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Tropical Depression Eleven 2020 Computer Models, Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models are in strong agreement that Tropical Depression 11 will move west-northwestward across the tropical Atlantic then curve northwestward into the open Atlantic before the system reaches the Lesser Antilles.

The CMC computer model (yellow triangle) is the western outlier with a later curve towards Bermuda.

The GFS American model (purple square) forecasts a turn to the north towards Bermuda.

The official NHC forecast (red circle) is close to the latest NOAA corrected model consensus or HCCA.

Tropical Depression 11 Category Strength

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Tropical Depression 11 2020 NOAA NHC Wind Arrival Time

Tropical Depression 11 has maximum sustained winds of 35 mph (55 km/h), with higher gusts.

T.D. 11 is forecast to slowly strengthen into Tropical Storm Josephine later today.