NOAA: Tropical Depression Sally Track, Spaghetti Models

MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued a Public Advisory at 5 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Thursday, September 17, 2020, due to the presence of Tropical Depression Sally (formerly Invest 96L and Tropical Depression Nineteen) that is moving over Alabama and Georgia.

Sally is the earliest 18th named storm of any Atlantic Hurricane season by 20 days. The previous record was held by Stan in 2005.

Tropical Depression Sally Projected Path

NOAA National Hurricane Center Tropical Depression Sally 2020 Projected Path
NOAA National Hurricane Center Tropical Depression Sally 2020 Projected Path

Tropical Depression Sally is located about 50 miles southeast of Montgomery, Alabama, and is moving to the northeast at 12 mph (19 km/h).

NHC forecasters say that a northeastward to east-northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected into Friday.

On the official NHC forecast track, the center of Sally will move across southeastern Alabama this morning, over central Georgia this afternoon and evening, and move over South Carolina late tonight into Friday.

Tropical Depression Sally Computer Models

Tropical Depression Sally 2020 Computer Models, Spaghetti Models
Tropical Depression Sally 2020 Computer Models, Spaghetti Models

The spaghetti models are in strong agreement that Tropical Depression Sally will track northeastward over southeastern Alabama, and move over central Georgia and South Carolina.

The dynamical models are tightly clustered and the official NHC track (red circle) is near the center of the envelope.

Tropical Depression Sally Strength

Sally has weakened into a tropical depression with maximum sustained winds of 30 mph (45 km/h), with higher gusts.

Additional weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Sally is expected to become a remnant low by tonight or on Friday.

NOAA historical hurricane data. Peak season and storm frequency.

The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season occurred on September 10 when tropical cyclone activity significantly increases, according to NOAA and the National Weather Service’s historical hurricane activity data.

Currently, a total of 6 tropical cyclones may form within the next 5 days.