NOAA: Invest 95L Track, Spaghetti Models

MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued a Tropical Weather Outlook at 2 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Saturday, September 12, 2020, due to the presence of Invest 95L that may become a tropical cyclone over the Atlantic Ocean.

Invest 95L 2020 Projected Path

Invest 95L is a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands (marked with a red “X”).

Satellite imagery and satellite-derived wind data indicate that Invest 95L has become better defined.

The associated shower and thunderstorm activity are also becoming better organized.

NHC forecasters say that if this development trend continues, then a tropical depression will likely form later today or tonight.

The system is expected to move westward then northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic over the next several days.

Invest 95L has a 90% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next five days and a 90% chance within the next 48 hours.

If this system becomes a tropical storm or hurricane, the next names on the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Names List are Teddy and Vicky.

Invest 95L 2020 Spaghetti Models
Invest 95L 2020 Computer Models, Spaghetti Models
Invest 95L 2020 Computer Models, Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models are in general agreement that Invest 95L will track westward across the Atlantic Ocean for the next few days.

However, the computer models are not in agreement as to when Invest 95L will turn to the west-northwest or northwest.

The GFS American model (purple square) and the EECF European model (orange triangle) both forecast a more westerly track.

NOAA historical hurricane data. Peak season and storm frequency.

The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season occurred on September 10 when tropical cyclone activity significantly increases, according to NOAA and the National Weather Service’s historical hurricane activity data.

Currently, a total of 6 tropical cyclones may form within the next 5 days.

Prevailing hurricane tracks in September
Prevailing hurricane tracks in September

NOAA and Colorado State University forecast an “extremely active” 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season which runs from June 1 through November 30.