NOAA: Tropical Depression 20 Track, Spaghetti Models

MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued a Public Advisory at 11 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Sunday, September 13, 2020, due to the presence of Tropical Depression Twenty (formerly Invest 95L) that is forecast to become a hurricane.

If Tropical Depression 20 becomes a tropical storm or hurricane, the next name on the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Names List is Teddy.

Tropical Depression 20 Projected Path

Tropical Depression 20 is located about 1500 miles east of the Lesser Antilles and is moving to the west-northwest at 15 mph (24 km/h).

NHC forecasters say that a motion toward the west or west-northwest across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic is expected through Tuesday, followed by a slower northwestward motion Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Tropical Depression 20 Computer Models

Tropical Depression Twenty Computer Models, Spaghetti Models
Tropical Depression Twenty Computer Models, Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models are in general agreement that T.D. 20 will track westward across the Atlantic Ocean for the next few days.

However, the computer models are not in agreement as to when T.D. 20 will turn to the west-northwest or northwest.

Most of the track models are clustered close together, although the HWRF (pink circle) remains a southern outlier and the ECMWF European model (orange triangle) is a little slower and on the right side of the envelope.

The new NHC track forecast has not moved much from the previous prediction and now lies closest to the HFIP Corrected Consensus.

Tropical Depression 20 Category Strength

Tropical Depression Twenty NOAA NHC Wind Arrival Time
Tropical Depression Twenty NOAA NHC Wind Arrival Time

Tropical Depression 20 has maximum sustained winds of 35 mph (55 km/h), with higher gusts.

The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight and then will likely strengthen to a hurricane on Tuesday.

NOAA historical hurricane data. Peak season and storm frequency.

The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season occurred on September 10 when tropical cyclone activity significantly increases, according to NOAA and the National Weather Service’s historical hurricane activity data.

Currently, a total of 7 tropical cyclones may form within the next 5 days.

Prevailing hurricane tracks in September
Prevailing hurricane tracks in September

NOAA and Colorado State University forecast an “extremely active” 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season which runs from June 1 through November 30.