MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued a Tropical Weather Outlook at 8 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Friday, October 2, 2020, due to the presence of Invest 91L that may form into a tropical cyclone over the northwestern Caribbean.
Invest 91L is a broad low pressure area over the northwestern Caribbean Sea that continues to become better organized (marked with a red “X”).
NHC forecasters say that environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for a tropical depression or a tropical storm to form later today or Saturday if the system remains over the waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea or the southern Gulf of Mexico.
Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula and northern Central America should monitor the progress of this system as it moves generally northwestward, as tropical storm watches or warning may be required for portions of these areas later today or tonight.
Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy rains, with possible flash flooding, over portions of southeastern Mexico, Central America, and western Cuba during the next several days.
A U.S. Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon, if necessary.
Invest 91L has a 90% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 5 days and a 90% chance within the next 48 hours.
If this system becomes a tropical storm or hurricane, the next name on the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Greek Alphabet Names List is Gamma.
Invest 91L 2020 Computer Models
Spaghetti models are in general agreement that Invest 91L will move in a west-northwesterly direction across the Caribbean Sea and make landfall somewhere on the Yucatan Peninsula.
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September 10 was the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season where tropical cyclone activity significantly increases. But hurricane season still remains at an increased level of activity through the first half of October, according to NOAA and the National Weather Service’s historical data.