NOAA: Category 2 Hurricane Iota Track, Spaghetti Models

MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued a Public Advisory at 4 a.m. Eastern Standard Time on Tuesday, November 17, 2020, due to the presence of Category 2 Hurricane Iota over Central America.

Hurricane Iota Projected Path

Hurricane Iota is located about 65 miles west-southwest of Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua, and is moving to the west at 9 mph (15 km/h).

NHC forecasters say that this general motion is expected to continue during the next day or so.

On the official NHC forecast track, Iota will move farther inland across northern Nicaragua today and move across southern Honduras tonight and Wednesday.

Hurricane Iota Computer Models

Hurricane Iota Computer Models, Spaghetti Models
Hurricane Iota Computer Models, Spaghetti Models

Computer models are in good agreement on a westward heading after landfall.

The new NHC track forecast is essentially just an extension of the previous advisory track, and closely follows a blend of the consensus models TVCN, NOAA-HCCA, and FSSE.

Hurricane Iota Category Strength

Hurricane Iota NOAA NHC Wind Arrival Time
Hurricane Iota NOAA NHC Wind Arrival Time

Hurricane Iota has maximum sustained winds of 105 mph (165 km/h), with higher gusts.

Iota is a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center of the tropical cyclone and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km).

Hurricane Iota Watches and Warnings

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to Sandy Bay Sirpi; the coast of northeastern Honduras from Punta Patuca to the Honduras/Nicaragua border.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Providencia; San Andres; the coast of Nicaragua from south of Sandy Bay Sirpi to Bluefields; the northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca to the Guatemala/Honduras border; and the Bay Islands.

NOAA historical hurricane data. Peak season and storm frequency.

September 10 was the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season where tropical cyclone activity significantly increases. But hurricane season can still remain at an increased level of activity through the first half of November, according to NOAA and the National Weather Service’s historical data.

NOAA and Colorado State University forecast an “extremely active” 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season which runs from June 1 through November 30.