NOAA: Hurricane Iota Track, Spaghetti Models

MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued a Public Advisory at 10 a.m. Eastern Standard Time on Monday, November 16, 2020, due to the presence of Hurricane Iota (formerly Invest 98L and Tropical Depression Thirty-one) over the central Caribbean.

Hurricane Iota Projected Path

Hurricane Iota is located about 100 miles east-southeast of Cabo Gracias a Dios on the Nicaraguan/Honduran border and is moving to the west at 9 mph (15 km/h).

NHC forecasters say that this general motion is forecast through landfall.

After landfall, a westward to west-southwestward motion is expected.

On the official NHC forecast track, the core of Iota will make landfall within the hurricane warning area in northeastern Nicaragua tonight and will dissipate over central America by Wednesday.

Hurricane Iota Computer Models

Hurricane Iota Computer Models, Spaghetti Models
Hurricane Iota Computer Models, Spaghetti Models

Computer models are in good agreement on a westward to west-northwestward heading through landfall.

After landfall, a westward to west-southwestward track is anticipated.

The new NHC track forecast is a little south of the previous one, mostly owing to the new initial position.

Hurricane Iota Category Strength

Hurricane Iota NOAA NHC Wind Arrival Time
Hurricane Iota NOAA NHC Wind Arrival Time

Hurricane Iota has maximum sustained winds of 160 mph (260 km/h), with higher gusts.

Iota is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

Iota is forecast to continue to be a catastrophic category 5 hurricane when it approaches Central America tonight, and rapid weakening is expected after landfall.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center of the tropical cyclone and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km).

NOAA historical hurricane data. Peak season and storm frequency.

September 10 was the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season where tropical cyclone activity significantly increases. But hurricane season can still remain at an increased level of activity through the first half of November, according to NOAA and the National Weather Service’s historical data.

NOAA and Colorado State University forecast an “extremely active” 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season which runs from June 1 through November 30.