NOAA: Tropical Depression 31 Path, Spaghetti Models

MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued a Public Advisory at 10 a.m. Eastern Standard Time on Friday, November 13, 2020, due to the presence of Tropical Depression Thirty-one (formerly Invest 98L) over the central Caribbean.

Tropical Depression Thirty-one Projected Path

Tropical Depression Thirty-one is located about 310 miles south-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, and is moving to the west-southwest at 7 mph (11 km/h).

NHC forecasters say that this motion is expected to continue through early Saturday.

A westward to west-northwestward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected to begin by late Saturday and continue through early Monday.

On the official NHC forecast track, the system will move across the central Caribbean Sea during the next day or so, and approach the coasts of Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras late Sunday and Monday.

Tropical Depression Thirty-one Computer Models

Tropical Depression Thirty-one Computer Models, Spaghetti Models
Tropical Depression Thirty-one Computer Models, Spaghetti Models

Computer models are in good agreement through the first couple of days, but there is increasing cross-track spread after that time.

The HMON, HWRF, and GFS American model (purple square) show a track near or north of the coast of Honduras after 72 hours, while the ECMWF European model (orange triangle) and UKMET are farther south.

For now, the official NHC track is near the middle of the guidance envelope between the HFIP corrected consensus model and the TCVA multi-model consensus.

Tropical Depression Thirty-one Category Strength

Tropical Depression Thirty-one NOAA NHC Wind Arrival Time
Tropical Depression Thirty-one NOAA NHC Wind Arrival Time

Tropical Depression Thirty-one has maximum sustained winds of 35 mph (55 km/h), with higher gusts.

The depression is forecast to strengthen into a tropical storm later today or tonight.

Additional strengthening is likely over the weekend, and the system could be near major hurricane strength when it approaches Central America.

If Tropical Depression 31 becomes a tropical storm or hurricane, the next name on the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Greek Alphabet Names List is Iota.

NOAA historical hurricane data. Peak season and storm frequency.

September 10 was the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season where tropical cyclone activity significantly increases. But hurricane season can still remain at an increased level of activity through the first half of November, according to NOAA and the National Weather Service’s historical data.

NOAA and Colorado State University forecast an “extremely active” 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season which runs from June 1 through November 30.