NOAA: Tropical Storm Eta Path To Florida, Spaghetti Models

MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued a Public Advisory at 1 a.m. Eastern Standard Time on Monday, November 9, 2020, due to the presence of Tropical Storm Eta over the Caribbean.

This is the first time an Atlantic Hurricane Season has reached the name Eta in the Greek Alphabet.

Eta is the twenty-eighth named storm of the 2020 season which ties the record for the number of named storms set in 2005.

Tropical Storm Eta Projected Path

NOAA National Hurricane Center Tropical Storm Eta Projected Path
NOAA National Hurricane Center Tropical Storm Eta Projected Path

Tropical Storm Eta is located about 40 miles northeast of Key West, Florida, and is moving to the west-northwest at 14 mph (22 km/h).

NHC forecasters say that a west to west-southwest motion with some reduction in forward speed is expected later today and tonight.

Little overall motion is expected on Tuesday.

On the official NHC forecast track, the center of Eta will pass near or over the Florida Keys and extreme south Florida during the next few hours, and be over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico late Monday and Tuesday.

Tropical Storm Eta Computer Models

Tropical Storm Eta Computer Models, Spaghetti Models
Tropical Storm Eta Computer Models, Spaghetti Models

The ECMWF European Model (orange square) and the GFS American model (purple square) both forecast that Eta will track near or over Key West then curve westward into the open Gulf of Mexico.

The new official NHC official track forecast (red circle) lies near the model consensus at 96 and 120 hours and is similar to the previous advisory.

Tropical Storm Eta Category Strength

Tropical Storm Eta NOAA NHC Wind Arrival Time
Tropical Storm Eta NOAA NHC Wind Arrival Time

Tropical Storm Eta has maximum sustained winds of 65 mph (100 km/h), with higher gusts.

Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so and Eta is forecast to become a hurricane when it moves over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km) from the center of the cyclone.

Tropical Storm Eta Watches and Warnings

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including Florida Bay.

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for the  Florida coast from Bonita Beach to Card Sound Bridge.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including Florida Bay.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Florida coast from Golden Beach to Bonita Beach.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence; the Florida coast from Brevard/Volusia County line to Englewood; and Lake Okeechobee.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth; the Florida coast from north of Englewood to Anna Maria Island.

NOAA historical hurricane data. Peak season and storm frequency.

September 10 was the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season where tropical cyclone activity significantly increases. But hurricane season still remains at an increased level of activity through the first half of November, according to NOAA and the National Weather Service’s historical data.

October Hurricanes Atlantic Hurricane Season Historical

NOAA and Colorado State University forecast an “extremely active” 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season which runs from June 1 through November 30.