NOAA: Tropical Storm Elsa Path, Spaghetti Models

NOAA National Hurricane Center Tropical Storm Elsa Projected Path

MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued a Public Advisory at 11 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Tuesday, July 6, 2020, due to the presence of Tropical Storm Elsa that is tracking toward Florida.

Tropical Storm Elsa Projected Path

Tropical Storm Elsa is located about 215 miles south of Tampa, Florida, and is moving to the north-northwest at 10 mph (17 km/h).

NHC forecasters say that a generally northward motion is expected today and tonight.

A turm toward the north-northeast is expected on Wednesday, followed by a faster northeastward by late Thursday.

On the official NHC forecast track, Elsa will continue to pass near the Florida Keys this morning, and move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida later today through tonight.

On Wednesday morning, Elsa is forecast to make landfall along the north Florida Gulf coast and then move across the southeastern United States through Thursday.

Tropical Storm Elsa Computer Models

Tropical Storm Elsa 2021 Computer Models, Spaghetti Models
Tropical Storm Elsa 2021 Computer Models, Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models are in strong agreement that Elsa will track north-northwestward across the Caribbean then turn to the north-northeast toward Florida’s west coast.

The ECMWF European model (orange triangle), UKMET (blue square), GFS American model (purple square), and HWRF model (pink circle) are all tightly clustered in this forecast.

Tropical Storm Elsa Category Strength

Tropical Storm Elsa 2021 NOAA NHC Wind Arrival Time
Tropical Storm Elsa 2021 NOAA NHC Wind Arrival Time

Elsa is a tropical storm on the Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph (95 km/h), with higher gusts.

Slow strengthening is forecast through tonight, and Elsa could be near hurricane strength before it makes landfall in Florida.

Weakening is expected after it moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center of the cyclone.

Tropical Storm Elsa Watches and Warnings

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the west coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Aucilla River, including Tampa Bay.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas; and the Florida west coast from Flamingo northward to Ochlockonee River.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect from Egmont Key to the Steinhatchee River, Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for the west coast of Florida from the Aucilla River to the Ochlockonee River.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the west coast of Florida from west of the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass, Florida; and the mouth of St. Marys River to South Santee River, South Carolina.

The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season occurs on September 10 when tropical cyclone activity significantly increases, according to NOAA and the National Weather Service’s historical hurricane activity data.

NOAA and Colorado State University forecast an “above average” 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season which runs from June 1 through November 30.