90% Chance New Tropical Cyclone Forms In Atlantic

Categories: NOAA

90% Chance New Tropical Cyclone Forms In Atlantic

MIAMI, Florida — As of 8:00 a.m. on Thursday August 30, 2012 Eastern Daylight Time, NOAA’s National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, has several outstanding advisories associated with its tropical weather outlook due to the presence of Tropical Storm Isaac over Louisiana and Mississippi, Tropical Storm Kirk in the central Atlantic, and the strengthening of a tropical wave off the coast of Africa.

8 AM August 30 UPDATE: NOAA: 100% Chance New Tropical Cyclone Forms In Atlantic

Tropical Storm Isaac is located 125 miles northwest of New Orleans, Louisiana with maximum sustained winds of 45 miles per hour, with higher gusts, as it moves northwest at 8 miles per hour .
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Intracoastal City, Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border (including Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain).

Southeast Louisiana and Mississippi: 5 to 10 feet.
Alabama: 2 to 4 feet.
South Central Louisiana: 1 to 3 feet.
Florida Panhandle: 1 to 2 feet

Tropical Storm Kirk is located 1505 miles southwest of the Azores with maximum sustained winds of 65 miles per hour as it moves northwest at 10 miles per hour. NOAA predicts some strengthening of Tropical Storm Kirk during the next 48 hours and could become a hurricane.

Meanwhile, satellite images of a tropical wave located 1000 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands (marked as number 1 above) indicate that a new Tropical Depression could be forming over the central Atlantic Ocean NOAA says this system has a high (90%) chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours as it moves toward the west-northwest at 15 to 20 miles per hour.

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TROPICAL STORM KIRK OFFICIAL PUBLIC ADVISORY:

000
WTNT31 KNHC 300840
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KIRK ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112012
500 AM AST THU AUG 30 2012

...KIRK CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 49.0W
ABOUT 1065 MI...1715 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1505 MI...2425 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIRK WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.0 WEST.  KIRK IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H.  A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...FOLLOWED
BY AN ACCELERATION TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND KIRK COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC OFFICIAL PUBLIC ADVISORY:

000
WTNT34 KNHC 301142
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  37A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092012
700 AM CDT THU AUG 30 2012

...ISAAC CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...STILL PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS...SEVERE WEATHER...AND HIGH
WATER LEVELS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.1N 91.8W
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM SE OF ALEXANDRIA LOUISIANA
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM NW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...
INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE. 


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.8 WEST. ISAAC IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H.  A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH ON FRIDAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISAAC
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER LOUISIANA TODAY...OVER ARKANSAS ON
FRIDAY...AND OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI FRIDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE PRIMARILY OCCURRING OVER WATER OR
NEAR THE COAST. STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS ISAAC CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER LAND. ISAAC IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY TONIGHT.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280
KM...MAINLY EAST THROUGH SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON NEARBY SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
EVEN THOUGH ISAAC IS NO LONGER A HURRICANE...LIFE-THREATENING
HAZARDS FROM STORM SURGE...INLAND FLOODING...AND TORNADOES ARE STILL
OCCURRING.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

* MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...5 TO 10 FT
* ALABAMA...2 TO 4 FT
* SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA...1 TO 3 FT
* FLORIDA PANHANDLE...1 TO 2 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WINDS.  SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE
TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER
SHORT DISTANCES.  FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE
SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.  NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.

BASED ON OBSERVATIONS FROM NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE TIDE GAUGES...AT
NEW CANAL STATION LOUISIANA...A STORM SURGE OF NEAR 6 FEET IS STILL
OCCURRING ON THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND A STORM
SURGE VALUE OF NEAR 5 FEET IS OCCURRING AT WAVELAND MISSISSIPPI.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WARNING
AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING.

RAINFALL...ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 
7 TO 14 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 25
INCHES...OVER MUCH OF LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA
AND ARKANSAS THROUGH FRIDAY.  THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT LOWLAND FLOODING.

AN UNOFFICIAL REPORT OF A RAINFALL TOTAL OF 23.31 INCHES HAS BEEN
RECEIVED FROM GRETNA LOUISIANA.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION AND PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH TODAY.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FOR THE
NEXT DAY OR SO.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/BLAKE