Categories: NOAA

Low Hits Florida As Ernesto and Florence Move West

CAPE CANAVERAL, Florida — At 2 p.m. on August 4, 2012 Eastern Daylight Time, NOAA’s National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, issued a tropical weather outlook due to the development of Tropical Storm Florence in the Atlantic Ocean as well as a low pressure system headed for Florida while Tropical Storm Ernesto still churns in the Caribbean.

The system closest to Florida (marked as #1 on the above map), which formed over the Bahamas and is now located 50 miles east-southeast of Cape Canaveral, Florida, is a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. NOAA says that showers and thunderstorms with this low pressure area has increased. This system has a low chance (10%) of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours as it moves to the northwest at 5 to 10 miles an hour towards the Florida peninsula.

Tropical Storm Ernesto is located 550 miles east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica moving west at 18 miles per hour with maximum sustained winds of 50 miles per hour. NOAA says the center of Ernesto will move farther into the Eastern and Central Caribbean Sea towards the Yucatan Peninsula.

NOAA’s storm tracker forecasts that the Tropical Storm Ernesto will continue on its west-northwestward track through Thursday. The storm is predicted to remain at tropical storm strength on Sunday before reaching just south of the island nation of Jamaica. The storm is expected to reach hurricane strength on Monday near Jamaica.

Tropical Storm Florence is located over the eastern tropical Atlantic about 415 miles west of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands moving west-northwest at 16 miles per hour with maximum sustained winds of 35 miles per hour.

NOAA’s storm tracker forecasts that the Tropical Storm Florence will continue on its west-northwestward track through Thursday. The storm is predicted to weaken to tropical depression strength on Tuesday before reaching just east of the island nation of Puerto Rico.

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ERNESTO OFFICIAL PUBLIC ADVISORY:

000
WTNT35 KNHC 041737
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  12A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
200 PM AST SAT AUG 04 2012

...ERNESTO EXPECTED TO PASS WELL SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA TONIGHT... 


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 69.3W
ABOUT 270 MI...440 KM S OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.3 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF
HISPANIOLA TONIGHT AND SOUTH OF JAMAICA SUNDAY EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY BUT SOME
INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY. ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN IN A DAY OR TWO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATED THAT THE PRESSURE HAS
FALLEN TO 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES...WHICH WAS MEASURED AS THE PLANE
WAS DEPARTING THE CYCLONE.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON JAMAICA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.  SOME SQUALLS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE SOUTH COAST OF
PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA TODAY. 

RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN JAMAICA AS ERNESTO MOVES BY THE
ISLAND. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...OCCASIONALLY HEAVY...ARE
POSSIBLE IN ARUBA...CURACAO...AND BONAIRE. 


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

FLORENCE OFFICIAL PUBLIC ADVISORY:

000
WTNT31 KNHC 041445
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062012
1100 AM AST SAT AUG 04 2012

...FLORENCE A LITTLE STRONGER OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 30.6W
ABOUT 415 MI...665 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 30.6 WEST. FLORENCE
IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H.  THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE