Categories: NOAA

NOAA: 10% Chance New Tropical Cyclone Forms In Gulf of Mexico

MIAMI, Florida — As of 5:00 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Monday September 17, 2012, NOAA’s National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, issued its tropical weather outlook due to the presence of Tropical Storm Nadine located in the central Atlantic plus an area of low pressure just east of the Caribbean, and another system off the coast of Brownsville, Texas.

9 AM UPDATE: Both systems now have a near 0% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone.

Showers and thunderstorms have developed over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico in association with a weak surface low pressure system (marked as #1 above) near Brownsville, Texas.

NOAA believes that due to strong upper-level winds, this system has a low chance (10%) of becoming a tropical or subtropical cyclone during the next 48 hours as it moves inland along the north-central Gulf Coast by early Tuesday.

This system, along with an approaching cold front, could produce periods of locally heavy rainfall along portions of the northern Gulf Coast on Monday and continuing into Tuesday.

Another area of low pressure located about 250 miles east of the Windward Islands (marked as #2 above) is producing disorganized showers that remains minimal. NOAA says that environmental conditions are not conducive for development.

This system has a low chance (near 0%) of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours as it moves westward at around 15 miles per hour into the southwest Caribbean.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Nadine is located 675 miles southwest of the Azores with maximum sustained winds of 70 miles per hour, with higher gusts, as it moves east-northeast at 17 miles per hour.

There are no Tropical Storm Warnings or Watched in effect for

Tropical Storm Nadine. However, Tropical Storm Nadine is producing long-period swells that have elevated the rip current risk along the Florida Atlantic coast.

An Arizona man died in the strong rip currents in Cocoa Beach, Florida on Sunday.

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HURRICANE NADINE OFFICIAL PUBLIC ADVISORY:

000
WTNT34 KNHC 170837
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012
500 AM AST MON SEP 17 2012

...NADINE TURNS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.0N 36.4W
ABOUT 675 MI...1085 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NADINE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 36.4 WEST. NADINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H.  A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED
LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195 MILES...315 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN