NOAA: 50% Chance New Tropical Cyclone Forms In Atlantic

Categories: NOAA

NOAA: 50% Chance New Tropical Cyclone Forms In Atlantic

MIAMI, Florida — As of 8:00 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Friday September 21, 2012, NOAA’s National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, issued its tropical weather outlook due to the presence of Tropical Storm Nadine located in the east Atlantic plus an area of low pressure east of Bermuda.

Shower and thunderstorm activity located over the central Atlantic about 450 miles east of Bermuda (marked as #1 above) is associated with a non-tropical low pressure system.

NOAA believes that his low could begin to acquire tropical or subtropical characteristics as it moves west-northwestward at about 10 miles per hour today. But environmental conditions are expected to become less favorable when it encounters cool waters on Saturday.

This system has a medium chance (50%) of becoming a tropical or subtropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

Spaghetti models are in agreement that this system would approach Maine and the northern New England coast, but then hook northward towards Nova Scotia without making landfall.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Nadine is located 215 miles south of the Azores with maximum sustained winds of 65 miles per hour, with higher gusts, as it moves south at 7 miles per hour.

TROPICAL STORM NADINE OFFICIAL PUBLIC ADVISORY:

000
WTNT34 KNHC 211140
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  40A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012
800 AM AST FRI SEP 21 2012

...NADINE SLOWLY MOVING AWAY FROM THE AZORES...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.9N 27.5W
ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM S OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 190 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE AZORES

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 27.5 WEST. OVER THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS NADINE HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH NEAR 7
MPH...11 KM/H. HOWEVER...A SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
RESUME LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...NADINE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MOVE AWAY FROM
THE AZORES TODAY AND SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE...AND THERE IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD
THAT NADINE WILL BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT DAY OR
SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM OR GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN
PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TODAY. THESE WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. 

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY NADINE WILL AFFECT THE AZORES DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...NADINE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE AZORES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN