Categories: NOAA

NOAA: Unlikely Tropical Storm Dorian Redevelops, Projected Path Update

MIAMI, Florida — As of 8:00 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Sunday, August 4, 2013, NOAA’s National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida has issued its tropical weather outlook due to the presence of Tropical Storm Dorian’s remnants, the fourth named storm of the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

The remnants of Dorian (marked as #1) are merging with a frontal trough a couple hundred miles off the coast of North Carolina. NOAA believes that development is not expected and this system has a low chance, near 0%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

Computer spaghetti models are generally in a agreement that Tropical Depression Dorian will continue on a northeasterly track over the next 24 hours:

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NOAA is forecasting an active or extremely active 2013 Atlantic hurricane season this year due to warmer-than-average ocean temperatures, lack of El Niño, and a continuation of the atmospheric climate pattern, which includes a strong west African monsoon, that is responsible for the ongoing era of high activity for Atlantic hurricanes that began in 1995.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK:

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN AUG 4 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN ARE MERGING WITH A FRONTAL TROUGH A COUPLE
OF HUNDRED MILES OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA.  DEVELOPMENT IS
NOT EXPECTED AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.