Categories: NOAA

80% Chance Invest 91L Becomes A Tropical Cyclone

MIAMI, Florida — The National Hurricane Center is tracking a broad area of low pressure in the south-central Gulf of Mexico, named Invest 91L, which has an 80% chance of forming into a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours.

According to the National Weather Service, upper-level winds are forecast to become more favorable for development while this system moves northwestward across the western Gulf of Mexico, and a tropical depression or tropical storm could form at any time before the system reaches the Texas coast sometime on Tuesday.

NOAA satellite observations overnight suggest that Invest 91L continues to produce tropical-storm-force winds well to the east and northeast of the center. A U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is just now beginning its investigation of the system, and will help to determine whether the low-level circulation has become any better defined since Sunday.

The National Hurricane Center advises that interests in and along the northwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system and follow advisories issued by your local National Weather Service. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the middle and upper Texas coast and the western Louisiana coast Monday night and Tuesday. The system is also likely to bring heavy rainfall with possible flooding across portions of eastern Texas and western Louisiana.

Spaghetti models for Invest 91L are mostly in agreement that the system will cross the western Gulf of Mexico and make landfall somewhere along the Texas coastline later in the week.

If Invest 91L does form into a tropical storm, the next name on the list of the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Names is Bill.

Historically, Atlantic tropical cyclones originate in the Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico during the month of June.

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