Categories: NOAA

National Hurricane Center: Hurricane Matthew Projected Path To Hit Florida


MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida has issued a Public Advisory at 8 a.m. EDT on Tuesday, October 4, 2016, due to the presence of Hurricane Matthew.

Computer models shifted significantly westward to include a possible direct hit by a major hurricane on the Florida peninsula. As a result, the NHC has advised that tropical storm and/or hurricane watches are likely to be issued Tuesday for portions of the Florida peninsula and the Florida Keys.



Hurricane Matthew Projected Path


This deadly hurricane is located about 830 miles southeast of Cape Canaveral, Florida and is moving to the north at 9 miles per hour.

NHC forecasters believe that Matthew will continue on a northward projected path through Tuesday, followed by a turn to the north-northwest on Wednesday and a northwest turn Wednesday night.

Haiti is in the direct path of Hurricane Matthew’s storm track followed by eastern Cuba later today. Matthew is then projected to hit The Bahamas tonight and on Wednesday. Matthew then is expected to impact Florida on Thursday, and then head closest to Cape Canaveral, Florida on Friday morning.

Hurricane Matthew Computer Models



Spaghetti models are in general agreement that Hurricane Matthew will continue on a general northerly projected path through early Wednesday morning.

Most of the dynamical models show a track near the east coast of Florida and the southeast United States from days 3 through 5. The NHC track is largely unchanged through 48 hours, but has been adjusted slightly westward after that time, and is close to the consensus of the ECMWF and GFS. Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track since strong winds, heavy rainfall, and a dangerous storm surge will extend far from the center of Matthew.

Hurricane Matthew Strength


Matthew is a Category 4 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with maximum sustained winds of 145 mph (230 km/h). Fluctuations in strength are anticipated over the next several days. But Matthew will remain a powerful hurricane through at least Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center of the tropical cyclone and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km).

NHC projects that Matthew will remain at the following wind speed through this week:

140 MPH Tuesday (Category 4)
130 MPH Wednesday (Category 3)
130 MPH Thursday (Category 3)
125 MPH Friday (Category 3)
120 MPH Saturday (Category 2)
105 MPH Sunday (Category 2)

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