NOAA: Dorian To Become Category 3 Hurricane, Projected Path, Spaghetti Models

NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued a Public Advisory at 11 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Wednesday, August 28, 2019, due to the presence of Tropical Storm Dorian that is forecast to become a Category 3 Hurricane Dorian before making landfall on Florida on Monday.

Tropical Storm Dorian is located 25 miles southeast of St. Croix and is moving to the northwest at 13 mph (20 km/h).

NHC forecasters say that Dorian will continue on a northwest track for the next day or two.

Tropical Storm Dorian Projected Path Update

On the National Hurricane Center forecast track, the center of the tropical storm will pass over or near Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands later today.

Hurricane Dorian will track to the east of the Turks and Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas on Thursday, central and northwestern Bahamas on Friday and Saturday, and then make landfall on Florida on Monday.

Tropical Storm Dorian Computer Models

NOAA National Hurricane Center Tropical Storm Dorian Computer Models, Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models are in tight agreement that Tropical Storm Dorian will continue on a northwesterly track towards Puerto Rico and the Bahamas, then west-northwesterly towards Florida.

Often the most accurate spaghetti model, the European hurricane model for Dorian (ECMWF orange triangle on the computer model plot) is in close agreement with the NHC “cone of uncertainty.”

The official NHC track forecast very closely follows the multi-model consensus TVCA and the HCCA (HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach).

Tropical Storm Dorian Category Strength

Tropical Storm Dorian is currently a tropical storm on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph (95 km/h), with higher gusts.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center of the tropical cyclone.

Dorian is forecast to become a Category 1 hurricane later today and strengthen into a Category 3 hurricane before reaching Florida on Monday.