NOAA: Tropical Depression 5 Projected Path, Spaghetti Models

NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued a Public Advisory at 11 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Saturday, August 24, 2019, due to the presence of Tropical Depression Five over the Atlantic Ocean.

Tropical Depression Five (formerly Invest 99L) is located 805 miles east-southeast of Barbados and is moving to the west at 12 mph (19 km/h).

Tropical Depression Five Projected Path

NHC forecasters say that T.D. 5 will make a turn toward the west-northwest on Sunday, and that motion is expected to continue through Tuesday.

On the National Hurricane Center forecast track, the tropical cyclone is expected to be near the central Lesser Antilles on Tuesday.

Tropical Depression Five Computer Models

National Hurricane Center Tropical Depression Five Computer Models, Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models are in good agreement that Tropical Depression 5 will continue on a west-northwesterly track towards the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, and Haiti as Hurricane Dorian.

The official NHC forecast track is close to the consensus model TVCN, which is a little north of the NOAA HCCA corrected-consensus model.

Tropical Depression Five Strength

Tropical Depression Five is a tropical depression on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph (55 km/h), with higher gusts.

Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and T.D. 5 is forecast to become Tropical Storm Dorian later tonight or on Sunday.

NOAA forecasts an ‘above-normal’ 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season which runs from June 1 through November 30.