NHC: Invest 97L Path, Computer Models

NOAA National Hurricane Center Invest 97L Projected Path

MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued a Tropical Weather Outlook at 8 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Tuesday, September 17, 2019, due to the presence of Invest 97L that will likely become a tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours.

If Invest 97L becomes a tropical storm, the next name on the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane names list is Tropical Storm Imelda.

Invest 97L 2019 Projected Path

Invest 97L is a well-defined small low pressure system located about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles (marked with a red “X”).

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with Invest 97L has increased and become a little better organized this morning.

According to the National Hurricane Center, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for the formation of Tropical Depression Ten during the next 24 hours while this system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward across the tropical Atlantic.

Invest 97L has a 90% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next five days and a 90% chance within the next 48 hours.

Invest 97L 2019 Spaghetti Models

Invest 97L 2019 Computer Models, Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models shifted more westward overnight which places Invest 97L’s track closer to the Caribbean.

From Days 2 to 5, the GFS model (purple square) and European model (orange triangle) forecast that Invest 97L will continue to the northwest and track just east of the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and Bahamas.

On Day 6, the European and GFS models forecast a turn to the north toward the open Atlantic.

The UK model (blue square) and HRWF model (pink circle) predict a more west-northwesterly track closer toward the British Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic during Days 2 to 6.

NOAA forecasts an ‘above-normal’ 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season which runs from June 1 through November 30.