MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued a Tropical Weather Outlook at 2 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Sunday, September 22, 2019, due to the presence of Invest 99L that may become a tropical cyclone over the Caribbean.
If Invest 99L does become a tropical storm, the next name on the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane names list is Tropical Storm Karen.
Invest 99L 2019 Projected Path
Invest 99L is a strong tropical wave located just north of Tobago in the Windward Islands that is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms (marked with a red “X” below Tropical Storm Jerry).
Satellite, radar and surface data indicate that Invest 99L is becoming better organized and is producing winds to near tropical storm force in the eastern portion of the system.
NHC forecasters say that a tropical depression could form on Sunday or early next week while the system crosses the Windward Islands and over the eastern Caribbean Sea.
Invest 99L is expected to move westward and then northwestward at about 15 mph on Sunday and Monday.
This system is forecast to turn northward near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on Tuesday.
Tropical storm watches and warnings will likely be required for portions of the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico later today.
An Air Force Hurricane Hunter is scheduled to investigate Invest 99L this afternoon.
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are likely over much of the Lesser Antilles during the next couple of days which will likely spread across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands by Monday night or Tuesday.
Interests across the eastern Caribbean should monitor the progress of this disturbance.
Invest 99L has an 80% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next five days and an 80% chance within the next 48 hours.
Invest 99L 2019 Spaghetti Models
Spaghetti models are in strong agreement that Invest 99L will track northwesterly over the western Atlantic.
Computer models forecast a north-northwesterly turn when Invest 99L enters the eastern Caribbean followed by a curve to the north towards Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic.
NOAA forecasts an ‘above-normal’ 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season which runs from June 1 through November 30.