NOAA: Tropical Storm Lorenzo Path, Spaghetti Models

NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued a Public Advisory at 11 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Tuesday, September 24, 2019, due to the presence of Tropical Storm Lorenzo over the Atlantic.

Tropical Storm Lorenzo Projected Path

Tropical Storm Lorenzo is located 370 miles west-southwest of the southernmost Cabo Verde Islands and is moving to the west-northwest at 16 mph (26 km/h).

The tropical cyclone is forecast to continue west-northwest with a decrease in forward speed through early Thursday.

Lorenzo is expected to turn to the northwest on Thursday and into Friday.

Tropical Storm Lorenzo Computer Models

Tropical Storm Lorenzo 2019 Computer Models, Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models are in general agreement that Tropical Storm Lorenzo will curve to the north on Friday out into the open Atlantic.

The official NHC forecast track (red circle) lies closest to the UK model (blue square) between the European model (orange triangle) and GFS model (purple square).

Tropical Storm Lorenzo Category Strength

Tropical Storm Lorenzo 2019 Winds

Tropical Storm Lorenzo has maximum sustained winds of 65 mph (100 km/h), with higher gusts.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center of the tropical cyclone.

NHC forecasters say that additional strengthening is forecast and Lorenzo is expected to become a Category 3 hurricane by Wednesday.

All of the global models show Lorenzo becoming a fairly large and powerful hurricane within the next 5 days

NOAA forecasts an ‘above-normal’ 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season which runs from June 1 through November 30.