Invest 96L Spaghetti Models: National Hurricane Center Tropical Update

MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued a Tropical Weather Outlook at 8 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Thursday, October 17, 2019, due to the presence of Invest 96L that may become Tropical Storm Nestor later today.

Invest 96L is a broad area of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico (marked with a red “X”).

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with Invest 96L continues to show signs of organization.

Recent satellite wind data also indicate that the system is producing winds to near tropical storm force.

NHC forecasters say that environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development, and a tropical or subtropical storm is likely to form later today or tonight.

Regardless of development, Invest 96L could produce gusty winds and rough surf when it nears the northern or northeastern U.S. Gulf Coast on Friday or Saturday.

Heavy rainfall is also possible across portions of the southeast U.S. late this week and this weekend.

Invest 96L 2019 Computer Models

Invest 96L 2019 Spaghetti Models, Computer Models

Spaghetti models are in general agreement that Invest 96L will track northeasterly across the Gulf of Mexico before making landfall somewhere from Lousiana to Florida.

A U.S. Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system Thursday afternoon, if necessary.

Invest 96L has an 80% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours and within the next 5 days.

If Invest 96L becomes a tropical storm, the next name on the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane names list is Tropical Storm Nestor.

October Hurricanes Atlantic Hurricane Season Historical

Hurricanes that make U.S. landfall in October historically originate from the western Caribbean and the southern Gulf of Mexico.

NOAA historical hurricane data. Peak season and storm frequency.

Although peak hurricane season was on September 10, a smaller secondary peak occurs during the second week of October according to NOAA and the National Weather Service’s historical hurricane activity data.

NOAA forecasts an ‘above-normal’ 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season which runs from June 1 through November 30.