MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued a Tropical Weather Outlook at 8 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Monday, October 7, 2019, due to the presence of three systems that may become tropical cyclones within the next five days.
The first system is a non-tropical low pressure system located over the central Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and the Azores that is producing gale-force winds to the north of its center (marked with an orange “1”).
NHC forecasters say that environmental conditions are forecast to be generally conducive for the low to acquire some subtropical or tropical characteristics during the next day or two, and this system could become a tropical or subtropical storm on Tuesday or Wednesday while it moves slowly westward.
Upper-level winds are expected to become unfavorable for further development by Wednesday night.
This system has a 50% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours and within the next 5 days.
The second system is an area of showers and thunderstorms located over the western Atlantic between the southeastern coast of the United States and Bermuda that is associated with a dissipating frontal boundary (marked with a yellow “2”).
According to the NHC, this system is forecast to move northwestward and could acquire some subtropical characteristics later in the week while it meanders off the east coast of the United States.
This second system has a 30% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next five days and a 10% chance within the next 48 hours.
The third system is a trough of low pressure extending from the Yucatan Channel northeastward across the southern Florida peninsula that is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms (marked with a yellow “3” near the Florida Keys).
According to the National Hurricane Center, some slight development of this system is possible on Tuesday when it moves off the southeast U.S. coast.
The disturbance is forecast to merge with a frontal boundary and developing low off the east coast of the United States by Wednesday, and no further development is anticipated after that time.
Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall over portions of the southern Florida peninsula during the next day or so.
This system has a 10% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next five days and a 10% chance within the next 48 hours.
If any of these systems becomes a tropical storm, the next name on the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane names list is Tropical Storm Melissa.
Although peak hurricane season was on September 10, a smaller secondary peak occurs during the second week of October according to NOAA and the National Weather Service’s historical hurricane activity data.