Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Projected Path, Spaghetti Models

NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued a Public Advisory at 5 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Friday, October 18, 2019, due to the presence of Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen (formerly Invest 96L) that may become Tropical Storm Nestor over the Gulf of Mexico.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Projected Path

NOAA National Hurricane Center Tropical Storm Nestor 2019 Projected Path

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen is located 390 miles south-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River and is moving to the northeast at 14 mph (22 km/h).

A northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected for the next couple of days.

On the National Hurricane Center forecast track, the system will approach the northern Gulf Coast later today and tonight, and then move over portions of the southeastern United States on Saturday.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Computer Models

Tropical Storm Nestor 2019 Spaghetti Models, Computer Models

The GFS model (purple square), European model (orange triangle), and official NHC track forecast (red circle) are in strong agreement that the tropical cyclone will make landfall near or between Pensacola, Panama City Beach, or Mexico Beach.

The notable outlier is the UK model (blue square) which forecasts a landfall further south near Florida’s Big Bend.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Category Strength

Tropical Storm Nestor 2019 Winds

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) mainly to the southwest of the center.

The disturbance is expected to develop into a tropical or subtropical storm later today.

A U.S. Air Force plane will investigate the disturbance again in a few hours.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Watches And Warnings

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from the Mississippi/Alabama border to Yankeetown, Florida, and from Grand Isle, Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for Indian Pass to Clearwater Beach, Florida.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations.