Tropical Depression 15, Invest 95L Projected Paths, Spaghetti Models

MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center is monitoring Tropical Depression Fifteen over the eastern Atlantic, Invest 95L over the central Atlantic, and another system over the Gulf of Mexico that may also form into tropical cyclones.

Tropical Depression 15 Projected Path, Spaghetti Models

NOAA National Hurricane Center  Tropical Depression 15 Projected Path

At 11 p.m. EDT on October 14, 2019, Tropical Depression Fifteen is located 235 miles east-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands and is moving to the northwest at 10 mph (17 km/h).

This general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday.

On the forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to pass over or near the eastern Cabo Verde Islands on Tuesday, and pass near the central portion of those islands Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.

Tropical Depression 15 Spaghetti Models, Computer Models

Invest 95L Projected Path, Spaghetti Models

Invest 95L is a tropical wave located about 650 miles east of the southern Windward Islands that continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms

Invest 95L 2019 Spaghetti Models, Computer Models

Although thunderstorm activity has continued to increase and become a little better organized since Sunday, NHC forecasters say that upper-level winds are expected to be only marginally conducive for significant development of Invest 95L.

As Invest 95L approaches the Windward Islands, upper-level winds are forecast to become quite hostile for any further development.

Invest 95L has a 10% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next five days and a 10% chance within the next 48 hours.

Gulf of Mexico System

A trough of low pressure located over portions of Central America and the northwestern Caribbean Sea is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms

By late Wednesday, the system is forecast to emerge over the Bay of Campeche and then turn northward, and environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for some development towards the end of the week when the system is over the western Gulf of Mexico.

Regardless of development, this system and another disturbance over the eastern Pacific are expected to produce heavy rains over a large portion of Central America during the next couple of days, which could cause flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas.

This system has a 30% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 5 days and a 0% chance within the next 48 hours.

If any of these systems becomes a tropical storm, the next name on the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane names list is Tropical Storm Nestor.