NOAA: Tropical Storm Sebastien Path, Spaghetti Models

NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued a Public Advisory at 11 a.m. Eastern Standard Time on Tuesday, November 19, 2019, due to the presence of Tropical Storm Sebastien over the Atlantic Ocean.

NOAA forecasts an ‘above-normal’ 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season which runs from June 1 through November 30.

Although hurricane season ends on November 30, hurricanes can continue to form through late December according to NOAA and the National Weather Service’s historical hurricane activity data.

NOAA historical hurricane data. Peak season and storm frequency.

Tropical Storm Sebastien Projected Path

Tropical Storm Sebastien is located 275 miles northeast of the Leeward Islands and is moving to the north-northwest at 8 mph (13 km/h).

A turn to the north is expected on Wednesday followed by a turn to the northeast and an increase in forward speed Wednesday night.

Tropical Storm Sebastien Computer Models

Tropical Storm Sebastien 2019 Spaghetti Models, Computer Models

Spaghetti models are in relatively good agreement through 48 hours that the tropical cyclone will turn to the north on Wednesday.

The GFS model (purple square), European model (orange triangle), and UK model (blue square) forecast that Tropical Storm Sebastien will turn to the northeast Wednesday night and remain over the open Atlantic.

The official NHC forecast track is close to the latest corrected multi-model consensus guidance.

Tropical Storm Sebastien Category Strength

Tropical Storm Sebastien 2019 Winds

Tropical Storm Sebastien has maximum sustained winds of 45 mph (75 km/h), with higher gusts.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center of the tropical cyclone.

Some slight strengthening is possible over the next day or so. Sebastien is expected to become absorbed by a cold front in a couple of days.