MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida issued a Tropical Weather Outlook at 2:00 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Tuesday, August 11, 2020, due to the presence of Invest 95L 2020 that will likely form into a tropical cyclone over the Atlantic Ocean.
Invest 95L is a low pressure system is located over the eastern tropical Atlantic more than a thousand miles east of the Lesser Antilles (marked with a red “X”).
Shower and thunderstorm activity decreased somewhat this morning, but new activity is now forming near the system’s center of circulation.
NHC forecasters say that if these storms persist, then advisories would likely be initiated on a tropical depression later today or tonight.
Even if a tropical depression does not form by tonight, environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for development while the system moves west-northwestward at around 15 mph during the next couple of days.
Conditions are expected to become less conducive for development by the end of the week.
If Invest 95L becomes a tropical storm or hurricane, the next name on the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Names List is Josephine.
Invest 95L has a 90% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 5 days and a 90% chance within the next 48 hours.
Spaghetti models are in general agreement that Invest 95L will move west-northwestward across the tropical Atlantic then curve northwestward into the open Atlantic before the system reaches the Lesser Antilles.
The HRWF computer model (pink circle) is the southern outlier that keeps Invest 95L on a west-northwestward track closer to the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico.
The GFS American model (purple square) forecasts a turn to the north in the open Atlantic.
The European model (orange triangle) and UK model (blue square) both forecast an earlier turn to the northwest.
NOAA and Colorado State University forecast an “extremely active” 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season which runs from June 1 through November 30.