MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida issued a Tropical Weather Outlook at 8 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Thursday, August 20, 2020, due to the presence of Invest 97L 2020 that will likely form into a tropical cyclone over the Caribbean Sea.
Showers and thunderstorms continue to become better organized in association with a tropical wave and accompanying broad area of low pressure over the central Caribbean Sea (marked with a red “X”).
Satellite imagery suggests that Invest 97L’s circulation is becoming better defined.
NHC forecasters say that if these development trends continue, a tropical depression is likely to form today or tonight as the system approaches the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
Interests in Honduras and the Yucatan Peninsula should closely monitor the progress of this system.
Regardless of development, this disturbance will likely produce heavy rains across a large portion of Central America and southeastern Mexico late this week and this weekend.
A U.S. Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance system later today.
This system has a 90% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 5 days and a 90% chance within the next 48 hours.
If Invest 97L or Tropical Depression 13 become tropical storms or hurricanes, the next names on the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Names List are Laura and Marco.
Spaghetti models are in general agreement that Invest 97L will move west-northwestward across the Caribbean Sea but somewhat disagree as to a more northern or southern track just before making landfall somewhere between Honduras and the tip of the Yucatan Peninsula.
NOAA and Colorado State University forecast an “extremely active” 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season which runs from June 1 through November 30.