National Hurricane Center: 60% Chance Tropical Cyclone Forms Over Caribbean

MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida issued a Tropical Weather Outlook at 2 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Wednesday, September 30, 2020, due to the presence of a system that may form into a tropical cyclone within the next 5 days over the northwestern Caribbean.

A tropical wave located over the west-central Caribbean Sea is expected to move westward over the next couple of days and interact with a frontal system, producing a broad area of low pressure over the western Caribbean Sea by Thursday night or Friday (marked with an orange “X”).

NHC forecasters say that environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some additional development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form late this week or this weekend while the system moves slowly west-northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.

This system has a 60% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 5 days and a 10% chance within the next 48 hours.

If this system becomes a tropical storm or hurricane, the next name on the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Greek Alphabet Names List is Gamma.

September 10 was the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season where tropical cyclone activity significantly increases, according to NOAA and the National Weather Service’s historical hurricane activity data.

Prevailing hurricane tracks in September

NOAA and Colorado State University forecast an “extremely active” 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season which runs from June 1 through November 30.

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