Categories: Hurricane Season 2020 National Hurricane Center NOAA Spaghetti Models Spaghetti Plots Tropical Cyclone

NOAA: 7 Tropical Cyclones May Form, Invest 98L 99L Spaghetti Models

MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida issued a Tropical Weather Outlook at 2 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Wednesday, September 16, 2020, due to the presence of three other systems that may form into tropical cyclones within the next 5 days in addition to Hurricane Paulette, Hurricane Sally, Hurricane Teddy, and Tropical Storm Vicky.

The first system is an area of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico that is producing showers and thunderstorms which are showing some signs of organization (marked with an orange “X”).

NHC forecasters say that upper-level winds are forecast to gradually become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form late this week while the low meanders over the southern Gulf of Mexico for the next several days.

This system has a 40% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 5 days and a 20% chance within the next 48 hours.

Invest 98L 2020 Computer Models, Spaghetti Models

The second system, named Invest 98L, is an area of low pressure that has formed from a low-latitude tropical wave located a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands (marked with a red “X”).

NHC forecasters say that shower and thunderstorm activity has changed little during the past several hours but a tropical depression is still likely to form during the next few days while the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph.

This system has a 70% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 5 days and a 50% chance within the next 48 hours.

Invest 99L 2020 Computer Models, Spaghetti Models

The third system, named Invest 99L, is a non-tropical area of low pressure that is located over the far northeastern Atlantic Ocean a few hundred miles northeast of the Azores (marked with a yellow “X”).

NHC forecasters say that this system is forecast to move south-southeastward during the next few days where it will encounter warmer waters, which could allow the low to gradually acquire some tropical or subtropical characteristics this week.

This system has a 20% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 5 days and a 20% chance within the next 48 hours.

If these systems become tropical storms or hurricanes, the next name on the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Names List is Wilfred.

September 10 was the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season where tropical cyclone activity significantly increases, according to NOAA and the National Weather Service’s historical hurricane activity data.

Prevailing hurricane tracks in September

NOAA and Colorado State University forecast an “extremely active” 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season which runs from June 1 through November 30.

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