NOAA: Tropical Depression Vicky Track, Spaghetti Models

MIAMI, Florida - NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued a Public Advisory at 11 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Thursday, September 17, 2020, due to the presence of Tropical Depression Vicky (formerly Invest 97L and Tropical Depression Twenty-One) over the Atlantic Ocean.

Vicky is the earliest twentieth Atlantic tropical storm on record, beating the record by 21 days set by Tammy on October 5, 2005.

Vicky is also the only second time a “V” storm has been named. The previous time was in 2005.

Tropical Depression Vicky Projected Path

Tropical Depression Vicky is located about 1000 miles west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands and is moving to the west-northwest at 14 mph (22 km/h).

NHC forecasters say that a turn toward the west-southwest is expected later today, and that motion should continue through Friday.

Tropical Depression Vicky Computer Models

Tropical Depression Vicky 2020 Computer Models, Spaghetti Models
Tropical Depression Vicky 2020 Computer Models, Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models are in general agreement that Vicky will track west-southwestward across the Atlantic Ocean for the next few days.

The official NHC track forecast is in best agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus model.

Tropical Depression Vicky Category Strength

Tropical Depression Vicky has maximum sustained winds of 35 mph (55 km/h), with higher gusts.

Additional weakening is forecast during the next day or so, and Vicky is expected to become a remnant low later today.

The cyclone is forecast to dissipate Friday night or early Saturday.

NOAA historical hurricane data. Peak season and storm frequency.

The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season occurred on September 10 when tropical cyclone activity significantly increases, according to NOAA and the National Weather Service’s historical hurricane activity data.

Currently, a total of 6 tropical cyclones may form within the next 5 days.

Prevailing hurricane tracks in September
Prevailing hurricane tracks in September

NOAA and Colorado State University forecast an “extremely active” 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season which runs from June 1 through November 30.