NOAA: Subtropical Storm Alpha Track, Spaghetti Models

MIAMI, Florida - NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued a Special Public Advisory at 11:30 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Friday, September 18, 2020, due to the presence of Sub-Tropical Storm Alpha (formerly Invest 99L) that tracking over the tropical Atlantic Ocean.

Sub-Tropical Storm Alpha Projected Path

Sub-Tropical Storm Alpha is located about 75 miles north of Lisbon, Portugal, and is moving to the northeast at 17 mph (28 km/h).

NHC forecasters say that this general motion is expected during the next day or so before dissipation.

Alpha should move across the coast of west-central Portugal during the next couple of days.

Sub-Tropical Storm Alpha Computer Models

Subtropical Storm Alpha Computer Models, Spaghetti Models
Subtropical Storm Alpha Computer Models, Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models are in general agreement that Sub-Tropical Storm Alpha will track northeastward across Portugal.

Global models show the small low moving northeastward at about 15 kt for the next 24 hours before dissipating over northern Spain or the Bay of Biscay.

Sub-Tropical Storm Alpha Category Strength

Sub-Tropical Storm Alpha has maximum sustained winds of 50 mph (85 km/h), with higher gusts.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 35 miles from the center of the cyclone.

NOAA historical hurricane data. Peak season and storm frequency.

The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season occurred on September 10 when tropical cyclone activity significantly increases, according to NOAA and the National Weather Service’s historical hurricane activity data.

Currently, a total of 6 tropical cyclones may form within the next 5 days.

Prevailing hurricane tracks in September
Prevailing hurricane tracks in September

NOAA and Colorado State University forecast an “extremely active” 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season which runs from June 1 through November 30.